Anonymous user
Talk:Pig the dice game/Player: Difference between revisions
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I found a [http://cs.gettysburg.edu/projects/pig/piggame.html site] and a paper "Optimal Play of the Dice Game Pig" by Todd W. Neller and Clifton G.M. Presser. I glossed over the pretty graphs which may however be something like what Ledrug is computing for his optimal strategy. I was after simple strategies and picked out their mention of 20 as being the accumulated points in a round where the odds of throwing a one are balanced by accumulated point.<br>
They also go on to describe why roll till 20 fails when getting nearer to the end of a game where it is advantageous to 'sprint for the win'. I ignored their full optimised strategy and just coded a 'region of desperation'. If any player is within 20 of finishing then this player should keep on rolling until it either wins or is bust as another player is likely to win on its next go. --[[User:Paddy3118|Paddy3118]] 05:55, 17 September 2012 (UTC)
: Holding at 20 is obviously not universal: if your opponent has 98 or 99 points, you have more than 50% chance of losing if you hold at any point before 100. If you want a simple rule, this is closer to truth: if your opponent has more than 80ish, roll no matter what; if you have more than 78 points, roll no matter what; otherwise hold if your holding score is more than 20ish. That should be a pretty good rough approximation.
: The fact is, at any give point in the game, the probabilities of roll vs hold never differ all that much: the winning chance of rolling is never lower than 80% that of holding. If you want a ''really'' simple rule, "just keep rolling" is the simplest. But as a game, a good strategy has a lot do with human perception of the outcome rather than boring mathematics. Take for an example, the absurd situation where both players are at 0, but you somehow with a streak of terrific luck and had rolled 99 so far. What to do at this point? If you hold, you have 98.8% chance winning; if you roll, it's 91.2%. You can hardly say the odds are against you if you choose to roll, but you'd be kicking yourself really hard under the table if you rolled a 1. Really, what one may consider a "good enough" strategy sometimes has nothing to do with facts at all. --[[User:Ledrug|Ledrug]] 07:26, 17 September 2012 (UTC)
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