Talk:Monty Hall problem: Difference between revisions
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: Here's how I recommend thinking about it. You had a 1/3 chance of picking the right door initially (simple!) so there's a 2/3 chance you got it wrong to start out with. ''What Monty Hall does doesn't change that at all.'' Switching is like going from picking one door to picking two; yes, one has been subsequently eliminated, but you knew at least one of them didn't have the car anyway. BFD. You're switching from a 1/3 chance to the complement of a 1/3 chance (i.e., 2/3), which is a win. –[[User:Dkf|Donal Fellows]] 13:28, 13 April 2011 (UTC)
:: And if you still don't believe me, get a friend and play the game for real (well, maybe with a swig of beer instead of a car). 10 or 20 rounds with one strategy or the other shouldn't take too long. –[[User:Dkf|Donal Fellows]] 13:31, 13 April 2011 (UTC)
:"Now some think that door one still has a 66% chance and door 3 has 33% chance, but thats not true because now we only have 2 numbers; therefore it's 50/50 chance between the two". This is wrong. The fact that you know something after choosing does not change the fact that on average you got it wrong 66% times in the first place. [[User:Eoraptor|Eoraptor]] ([[User talk:Eoraptor|talk]]) 06:48, 18 February 2019 (UTC)
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