Sleeping Beauty problem: Difference between revisions
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subject, named Sleeping Beauty, agrees to an experiment as follows:
Sleeping Beauty volunteers to be put into a deep sleep on a Sunday. There is then a fair coin toss.
If this coin toss comes up heads, Sleeping Beauty wakes once (on Monday) and is asked to
estimate the probability that the coin toss was heads. Her estimate is recorded and she is
then put back to sleep for 2 days until Wednesday, at which time the experiment's results are tallied.
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Given the above problem, create a Monte Carlo estimate of the actual results. The program should find the
proportion of heads on waking and asking Sleeping Beauty for an estimate, as a credence or as a percentage of the times Sleeping Beauty
is asked the question.
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end
# If tails, we do this again, but
if coin_result == "tails"
wakenings += 1
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gotheadsonwaking += 1
# If tails, we do this again, but
if coin_result == "tails":
wakenings += 1
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