Twinkle and Sprinkle: Difference between revisions

From Rosetta Code
Content added Content deleted
(Added BASIC256, FreeBASIC and Yabasic.)
m (I'll take the pain of wiping thsi myself then)
Tag: Blanking
Line 1: Line 1:
The task is to do a statistical analysis of two remarkable fictitious cities, Twinkle and Sprinkle, that form a natural experiment. Twinkle and Sprinkle are practically equivalent, all possible variables having been controlled.

The task details are contained in [[#Python|the Python reference implementation]].

This task started out as one to statistically analyze the epidemiologies of two cities in France. I had started researching on the net, looking for statistical packages I might want to use, or algorithms I might implement, when I remembered the famous motto from R. W. Hamming's ''Numerical Methods for Scientists and Engineers'' (Dover, 1986):

:THE PURPOSE OF COMPUTING IS INSIGHT, NOT NUMBERS

So I went ahead and wrote a Python program that, instead of crunching numbers, depended on the human brain to gain insight enough to hard code in the correct numbers. Perhaps your program will contain different numbers.

=={{header|BASIC}}==
==={{header|BASIC256}}===
{{trans|Python}}
See Python entry for explanatory comments (which have been omitted for clarity)
<syntaxhighlight lang="vb">CR = chr(10)
txt = CR + " Heart attack rates, according to the incurious"
txt += CR + " Women Men Overall"
txt += CR + " Twinkle (predicted) 0 1 0.5"
txt += CR + " Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt += CR + ""
txt += CR + " Heart attack rates, according to the incurious"
txt += CR + " Women Men Overall"
txt += CR + " Twinkle (predicted) ??? ??? ???"
txt += CR + " Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt += CR + ""
txt += CR + " Heart attack rates, according to Dr. Godzilla"
txt += CR + " Women Men Overall"
txt += CR + " Twinkle (predicted) 0 0 0"
txt += CR + " Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt += CR + ""
txt += CR + " Heart attack rates, according to observers"
txt += CR + " Women Men Overall"
txt += CR + " Twinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt += CR + " Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt += CR + ""
txt += CR + " Output of an AI of a "+chr(34)+"Godzilla's theorem"+chr(34)+" adherent"
txt += CR + "However strange it may seem, heart attacks in Twinkle and"
txt += CR + "Sprinkle are now scientifically proven to involve some kind"
txt += CR + "of violation of causal reality."
txt += CR + ""
txt += CR + " Output of an AI of a very intellectual person"
txt += CR + "Adherents to "+chr(34)+"Godzilla's theorem"+chr(34)+" are society's greatest"
txt += CR + "geniuses, so what they say is true." + CR

print txt</syntaxhighlight>
{{out}}
<pre>Same as Python entry.</pre>

==={{header|FreeBASIC}}===
{{trans|Python}}
See Python entry for explanatory comments (which have been omitted for clarity)
<syntaxhighlight lang="vb">Dim As String txt = ""
txt &= !"\n Heart attack rates, according to the incurious"
txt &= !"\n Women Men Overall"
txt &= !"\n Twinkle (predicted) 0 1 0.5"
txt &= !"\n Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt &= !"\n"
txt &= !"\n Heart attack rates, according to the incurious"
txt &= !"\n Women Men Overall"
txt &= !"\n Twinkle (predicted) ??? ??? ???"
txt &= !"\n Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt &= !"\n"
txt &= !"\n Heart attack rates, according to Dr. Godzilla"
txt &= !"\n Women Men Overall"
txt &= !"\n Twinkle (predicted) 0 0 0"
txt &= !"\n Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt &= !"\n"
txt &= !"\n Heart attack rates, according to observers"
txt &= !"\n Women Men Overall"
txt &= !"\n Twinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt &= !"\n Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt &= !"\n"
txt &= !"\n Output of an AI of a \"Godzilla's theorem\" adherent"
txt &= !"\nHowever strange it may seem, heart attacks in Twinkle and"
txt &= !"\nSprinkle are now scientifically proven to involve some kind"
txt &= !"\nof violation of causal reality."
txt &= !"\n"
txt &= !"\n Output of an AI of a very intellectual person"
txt &= !"\nAdherents to \"Godzilla's theorem\" are society's greatest"
txt &= !"\ngeniuses, so what they say is true.\n"

Print txt</syntaxhighlight>
{{out}}
<pre>Same as Python entry.</pre>

==={{header|Yabasic}}===
{{trans|Python}}
See Python entry for explanatory comments (which have been omitted for clarity)
<syntaxhighlight lang="vb">txt$ = "\n Heart attack rates, according to the incurious"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Women Men Overall"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Twinkle (predicted) 0 1 0.5"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Heart attack rates, according to the incurious"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Women Men Overall"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Twinkle (predicted) ??? ??? ???"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Heart attack rates, according to Dr. Godzilla"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Women Men Overall"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Twinkle (predicted) 0 0 0"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Heart attack rates, according to observers"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Women Men Overall"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Twinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Output of an AI of a \"Godzilla's theorem\" adherent"
txt$ = txt$ + "\nHowever strange it may seem, heart attacks in Twinkle and"
txt$ = txt$ + "\nSprinkle are now scientifically proven to involve some kind"
txt$ = txt$ + "\nof violation of causal reality."
txt$ = txt$ + "\n"
txt$ = txt$ + "\n Output of an AI of a very intellectual person"
txt$ = txt$ + "\nAdherents to \"Godzilla's theorem\" are society's greatest"
txt$ = txt$ + "\ngeniuses, so what they say is true.\n"

print txt$</syntaxhighlight>
{{out}}
<pre>Same as Python entry.</pre>

=={{header|Phix}}==
{{trans|Python}}
See Python entry for explanatory comments (which have been omitted for clarity)
<!--<syntaxhighlight lang="phix">(phixonline)-->
<span style="color: #008080;">with</span> <span style="color: #008080;">javascript_semantics</span>
<span style="color: #008080;">constant</span> <span style="color: #000000;">txt</span> <span style="color: #0000FF;">=</span> <span style="color: #008000;">"""
Heart attack rates, according to logical inference
Women Men Overall
Twinkle (predicted) 0 1 0.5
Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5
Heart attack rates, according to the incurious
Women Men Overall
Twinkle (predicted) ??? ??? ???
Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5
Heart attack rates, according to Dr. Godzilla
Women Men Overall
Twinkle (predicted) 0 0 0
Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5
Heart attack rates, according to observers
Women Men Overall
Twinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5
Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5
Output of an AI of a "Godzilla's theorem" adherent
However strange it may seem, heart attacks in Twinkle and
Sprinkle are now scientifically proven to involve some kind
of violation of causal reality.
Output of an AI of a very intellectual person
Adherents to "Godzilla's theorem" are society's greatest
geniuses, so what they say is true.
"""</span>
<span style="color: #7060A8;">puts</span><span style="color: #0000FF;">(</span><span style="color: #000000;">1</span><span style="color: #0000FF;">,</span><span style="color: #000000;">txt</span><span style="color: #0000FF;">)</span>
<!--</syntaxhighlight>-->
{{out}}
<pre>Output same as Python</pre>

=={{header|Python}}==
<syntaxhighlight lang="python">
#!/bin/env python
######################################################################
#
# In his famous and highly respected paper, "Bertlmann's socks and the
# nature of reality" (available open access at
# https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/ ), the physicist John S. Bell
# asserts that, if we could control the temperature, and control for
# family quarrels, and so on, then the rates of heart attack in Lille
# and Lyon would be statistically independent (Equation 10). His
# defense of this assertion is that "it seems reasonable to expect".
#
# "It seems reasonable to expect" is, of course, not a defense at
# all. And there is an actual mathematical theory of probability that
# Bell is blithely ignoring, or perhaps did not even know about, that
# says this expectation is unreasonable. But let us ask: to what
# purpose is he making this claim? It is to justify the assumption
# that two variables can be treated as independent parameters (rather
# than as functions of other parameters), even if the two variables
# describe objects that have a common origin.
#
# By such reasoning, my siblings and I must have statistically
# independent DNA! For the only thing our DNAs have to explain any
# correlation is that share a common origin. Hold as many variables
# constant as you want, it will make no difference in the
# correlation. For this reason, I can hardly believe anyone doesn’t
# simply burst out laughing, when reading Bell's writing. But this
# writing is, in fact, mandatory doctrine not only in physics
# departments, but wherever quantum computers are dealt with.
#
# But let us, as amateur and professional computer programmers, not
# burst out laughing, but instead use our computers to examine what
# happens if we assume two cities have the same temperature, the same
# quarreling behaviors, etc., and--this is crucial--whose populations
# share a common origin.
#
# I do not expect either our programs or what I said above about
# sibling DNA to make the slightest difference with physicists and
# quantum computer researchers. They believe what they believe. But we
# are programmers of binary digital computers: probably not also
# quantum physicists, and surely not "qubit" programmers. So let us
# use our computers to enlighten at least ourselves. For, to quote
# Richard Hamming:
#
# THE PURPOSE OF COMPUTING IS INSIGHT, NOT NUMBERS
#
# I had set out to try to write a fancy Five-Thirty-Eight simulation,
# seeking insight into the matter. I looked into using GNU R to do
# statistically analysis, and so one, but soon realized that to do so
# would produce as much INSIGHT as do Five-Thirty-Eight's fancy
# simulations. Which is to say: none at all.
#
# Instead I came up with the following story.
#
######################################################################
#
# Our story runs as follows:
#
# The cities of Twinkle and Sprinkle always have the same temperature,
# same weather, same day length, same time zone. They always have the
# same quarreling behavior. Everybody eats practically the same things
# and practically at the same times. The two cities have
# indistinguishable sleep habits. They share their water supply. So on
# and so on and so on.
#
# In fact, let us go so far as to say that Twinkle and Sprinkle have
# exactly the same population. Not only that, but exactly half the
# population of each city is women cloned from the same woman, and
# half the population is men cloned from the same man. We shall
# further assume that the two progenitors were genetically sterile, so
# that there are no children in either Twinkle or Sprinkle. Everyone,
# in fact, is exactly the same age. There is no mutation or genetic
# drift.
#
# We could say much more, but you get the idea. We have controlled
# every variable there is: not just every variable we can think of,
# but literally every variable there IS. One of which is: the rate of
# heart attacks. Let us say that no one in either Twinkle or Sprinkle
# ever, ever has a heart attack.
#
# Let us now more closely examine the two progenitors. We discover
# that the male progenitor, but not the female progenitor, had a
# peculiarity of the DNA: that the sound of the "Lady Beware Alarm"
# device of the movie "Invasion of Astro-Monster"
# (https://godzilla.fandom.com/wiki/Invasion_of_Astro-Monster) causes
# instant heart attack.
#
# On a sunny day in July, suddenly it is raining "Lady Beware Alarm"
# devices on Sprinkle, and the devices are blaring at full blast. We
# observe Sprinkle and see that all the men have heart attacks, but
# none of the women do.
#
# We have not observed events in Twinkle. However, we know about the
# pecularity of the DNA, and we know that, as with everything else,
# rainfall in Twinkle is the same as in Sprinkle. We know this to be
# true even if the rain is made of electronic devices instead of
# water, because the two cities are controlled for every variable. Not
# only variables we thought of, but literally every every variable
# there is.
#
# Here we come to the use of a computer to gain insight.
#
# Write code to compute and print the heart attack rates for that July
# day in Twinkle and Sprinkle. The rates in Sprinkle are the observed
# ones, but the rates in Twinkle are predicted by inference.
#

print ()
print (" Heart attack rates, according to logical inference")
print (" Women Men Overall")
print (" Twinkle (predicted) 0 1 0.5")
print (" Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5")
print ()

#
# Now assume, against all common sense and soundness of logic, that
# heart attacks in Twinkle cannot be predicted from heart attacks in
# Sprinkle. We have controlled for all variables, but we also assume
# common origin is irrelevant.
#
# Write code to compute and print out the heart attack rates,
# according to that way of thinking.
#

print (" Heart attack rates, according to the incurious")
print (" Women Men Overall")
print (" Twinkle (predicted) ??? ??? ???")
print (" Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5")
print ()

#
# According to such theory, there is nothing we can predict about
# Twinkle. What happens in Twinkle will remain a complete mystery
# until we go there and observe.
#
# But further suppose we have a so-called "Godzilla's theorem", which
# quotes no postulates or theorems known to mathematics, but which
# instead introduces this postulate: that men having heart attacks in
# Sprinkle would have to have a causal influence on heart attack rates
# in Twinkle, for Twinkle's heart attack rates to change. This is so
# because we have controlled all variables and the "residual
# fluctuations" can be integrated out (as in Bell's Equation 10). The
# two cities are utterly the same. The only difference is we have
# observed the men in Sprinkle have heart attacks and have not
# observed Twinkle at all.
#
# Write code to compute and print out the heart attack rates predicted
# by "Godzilla's theorem".
#

print (" Heart attack rates, according to Dr. Godzilla")
print (" Women Men Overall")
print (" Twinkle (predicted) 0 0 0")
print (" Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5")
print ()

#
# Now we go into Twinkle and observe that all the men have had heart
# attacks, but none of the women have.
#
# Write code to compute and print out the observed heart attack rates.
#

print (" Heart attack rates, according to observers")
print (" Women Men Overall")
print (" Twinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5")
print (" Sprinkle (observed) 0 1 0.5")
print ()

#
# These empirical results stand in stark contrast to our prediction,
# which was predicated on the assumption of "causal reality".
#
# Write Artificial Intelligence code to print out the conclusion of
# adherents to "Godzilla's theorem".
#

print (" Output of an AI of a \"Godzilla's theorem\" adherent")
print ("However strange it may seem, heart attacks in Twinkle and")
print ("Sprinkle are now scientifically proven to involve some kind")
print ("of violation of causal reality.")
print ()

#
# Then write Artificial Intelligence code to print out the conclusion
# of the educated public.
#

print (" Output of an AI of a very intellectual person")
print ("Adherents to \"Godzilla's theorem\" are society's greatest")
print ("geniuses, so what they say is true.")
print ()

#
# That was the tale of two remarkable cities, Twinkle and Sprinkle.
#
# Okay. Now what do YOU, who just wrote a program for the purpose of
# gaining insight, think? What insight have you gained?
#
# In the end, we are all individually responsible for what we think,
# even if we got it by deferring to "scientific authority".
#
# THE END.
#
# Afterword: Those familiar with the debates within physics might
# recognize that the DNA peculiarity is what they would call a "hidden
# variable". The crucial question is this: can a "hidden variable" be
# shared due to a common origin, or can it not? I say it can be, John
# Bell said otherwise. But you must decide for yourself. It is your
# decision, even if that decision is to believe "Whichever of the two
# 'scientific authority' proclaims to be the truth."
#
</syntaxhighlight>

Revision as of 01:00, 8 June 2023

Retrieved from "https://rosettacode.org/wiki/Twinkle_and_Sprinkle?oldid=344373"