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Talk:Monty Hall problem: Difference between revisions
→Scheme Solution Problem?
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: sqrt(1M)=1000, so a deviation of this order of magnitude isn't exactly unexpected. Indeed, in this case the deviation is just below two standard deviations, i.e. a bit high, but still inside the 95% confidence interval. That is, for a truly random sequence with probabilities 1/3 and 2/3, there's a 5% chance of an even higher deviation. So, no clear indication of a problem. --[[User:Ce|Ce]] 10:39, 26 September 2009 (UTC)
:: Oops, I had looked only at the first number; now I notice that the second number is indeed far off. Given that winning with the switch strategy is the same as not winning with the stay strategy, I couldn't imagine that you could get one right and the other wrong ... --[[User:Ce|Ce]] 10:47, 26 September 2009 (UTC)
::: Looks to me like they're just randomly picking from two doors the second time. (Or their RNG is improbably distributed, which would be a much worse problem.) —[[User:Dkf|Donal Fellows]] 11:42, 26 September 2009 (UTC)
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