Talk:Monty Hall problem: Difference between revisions
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::Hi Lupus, lets say you run 100000 trials and for strategy1 and get 33337 wins. You might run a second set of 100000 trials for strategy1 and get 33314 - It is random it should tend to 1/3 but It is quite allright for it not to '''be''' 1/3 +/-1. Similarly for running 100000 tests of strategy2 - It might not be exactly two thirds +/- 1. Adding up the number of wins for the two strategies I would be most '''surprised''' if it always totalled 100000 and would check things again, as these are independent random runs. --[[User:Paddy3118|Paddy3118]] 17:39, 5 November 2008 (UTC) |
::Hi Lupus, lets say you run 100000 trials and for strategy1 and get 33337 wins. You might run a second set of 100000 trials for strategy1 and get 33314 - It is random it should tend to 1/3 but It is quite allright for it not to '''be''' 1/3 +/-1. Similarly for running 100000 tests of strategy2 - It might not be exactly two thirds +/- 1. Adding up the number of wins for the two strategies I would be most '''surprised''' if it always totalled 100000 and would check things again, as these are independent random runs. --[[User:Paddy3118|Paddy3118]] 17:39, 5 November 2008 (UTC) |
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:::The problem is that if you make 100000 runs, you should always switch, but remember where you started. That way, you can see if you would have won by staying and if you did win by switching all in one run. Doing it like this can guarantee that you will ''always'' record a total of 100000 outcomes. If you do 100000 runs switching and then 100000 runs staying, then you won't necessarily end up with 100000 total wins. I think Lupus is expecting that the examples only run through once checking to see if you would have |
:::The problem is that if you make 100000 runs, you should always switch, but remember where you started. That way, you can see if you would have won by staying and if you did win by switching all in one run. Doing it like this can guarantee that you will ''always'' record a total of 100000 outcomes. If you do 100000 runs switching and then 100000 runs staying, then you won't necessarily end up with 100000 total wins. I think Lupus is expecting that the examples only run through once checking to see if you would have won had you stayed and if you did win by switching. --[[User:Mwn3d|Mwn3d]] 17:54, 5 November 2008 (UTC) |
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