Sleeping Beauty problem: Difference between revisions
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Sleeping Beauty volunteers to be put into a deep sleep on a Sunday. There is then a fair coin toss. |
Sleeping Beauty volunteers to be put into a deep sleep on a Sunday. There is then a fair coin toss. |
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If this coin toss comes up heads, Sleeping Beauty wakes once (on Monday) and asked to |
If this coin toss comes up heads, Sleeping Beauty wakes once (on Monday) and asked to |
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estimate the probability that the coin toss was heads. Her estimate is recorded and she is |
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then put back to sleep for 2 days until Wednesday, at which time the experiment's results are tallied. |
then put back to sleep for 2 days until Wednesday, at which time the experiment's results are tallied. |
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If instead the coin toss is tails, Sleeping Beauty wakes as before on Monday and asked to |
If instead the coin toss is tails, Sleeping Beauty wakes as before on Monday and asked to |
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estimate the probability the coin toss was heads, but is then given a drug which makes her forget |
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that she had been woken on Monday before being put back to sleep again |
that she had been woken on Monday before being put back to sleep again. She then wakes only 1 day |
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later, on Tuesday. She is then asked (on Tuesday) again to guess the probability that the coin toss |
later, on Tuesday. She is then asked (on Tuesday) again to guess the probability that the coin toss |
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was heads or tails. She is then put back to sleep and awakes as before 1 day later, on Wednesday. |
was heads or tails. She is then put back to sleep and awakes as before 1 day later, on Wednesday. |
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